## Fertility dataset dimensions: 197 302## GDP dataset dimensions: 195 302## Fertility data columns (first 10): country 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808## GDP data columns (first 10): country 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808## Countries with fertility data for 2020: 197## Countries with GDP data for 2020: 195## Countries with both GDP and fertility data for 2020: 195## Pearson Correlation Analysis:## Correlation coefficient (r): -0.4974## 95% Confidence interval: -0.5963 to -0.3837## p-value: 1.387362e-13## Sample size: 195 countries## Examples of high GDP, low fertility countries:##
## Examples of low GDP, high fertility countries:The analysis reveals a strong negative correlation (r = -0.497) between GDP per capita and total fertility rate in 2020. This relationship is statistically significant (p < 0.001) and suggests several important patterns:
Economic Development and Demographic Transition: Countries with higher economic development (measured by GDP per capita) tend to have lower fertility rates, consistent with demographic transition theory.
Global Inequality: The world maps clearly show the economic divide, with wealthier nations concentrated in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia and Oceania, while many African and some Asian countries show lower GDP per capita.
Fertility Patterns: Sub-Saharan Africa shows consistently higher fertility rates, while developed nations in Europe, North America, and East Asia show fertility rates often below replacement level (2.1 children per woman).
Policy Implications: The strong negative relationship suggests that economic development policies may indirectly influence demographic trends, and countries experiencing rapid economic growth may see corresponding changes in fertility patterns.
The correlation coefficient of -0.497 indicates that approximately 24.7% of the variation in fertility rates can be explained by GDP per capita, highlighting the significant role of economic factors in demographic patterns globally.
## African Countries Analysis:## Total African countries in dataset: 54## Average fertility rate: 4.05 children per woman## Average GDP per capita: $ 5,330## Countries with fertility > 4: 31## Countries with GDP < $5,000: 36## Countries with both high fertility AND low GDP: 27## Percentage of African countries with both conditions: 50 %The data reveals a stark reality: 50% of African countries in our dataset simultaneously experience high fertility rates (>4 children per woman) and low GDP per capita (<$5,000). This clustering in the bottom-right quadrant of our scatterplot represents one of the most pressing development challenges of the 21st century.
African countries find themselves caught in what demographers call the “demographic trap.” High fertility rates, while historically seen as economic assets in agricultural societies, now present significant challenges:
Resource Strain: Rapid population growth strains already limited resources, making it difficult to invest adequately in education, healthcare, and infrastructure per capita.
Youth Bulge Pressure: A large proportion of young dependents creates economic pressure on working-age populations, potentially hindering savings and investment rates essential for economic growth.
Human Capital Dilution: Limited educational and healthcare resources must be spread across larger populations, potentially reducing the quality of human capital development.
The strong negative correlation between GDP and fertility rates suggests that targeted interventions could create positive feedback loops for development:
Reproductive Health and Family Planning: - Universal Access: Countries must prioritize universal access to modern contraceptives and family planning services, particularly in rural areas where fertility rates tend to be highest. - Education and Empowerment: Investing in girls’ education consistently correlates with delayed marriage, lower fertility rates, and improved economic outcomes. - Healthcare Infrastructure: Strengthening maternal and child healthcare systems can reduce infant mortality, often leading to voluntary fertility reduction as parents gain confidence in child survival.
Economic Development Strategies: - Diversification: Moving beyond commodity-dependent economies toward manufacturing and services can create employment opportunities and increase per capita income. - Human Capital Investment: Simultaneous investment in education and skills training can prepare populations for higher-productivity economic activities. - Women’s Economic Participation: Policies that enable women’s workforce participation often correlate with both economic growth and fertility decline.
Several countries have successfully navigated this transition. For example, countries like South Korea and Thailand demonstrated that rapid economic development accompanied by accessible family planning can lead to dramatic fertility declines within a generation. These transitions typically involve:
It’s crucial to emphasize that any demographic policies must respect human rights and individual choice. The goal is not to impose birth control but to:
The data clearly shows that economic development and demographic transition are deeply intertwined. For African countries experiencing both high fertility and low GDP, the path forward requires:
The opportunity for positive change is significant: countries that successfully manage both economic development and demographic transition often experience rapid improvements in living standards, creating what economists call the “demographic dividend.” The question is not whether African countries can achieve this transition, but whether the global community will provide the support and resources necessary to make it possible while respecting human dignity and choice throughout the process.
Explore all countries’ data with the interactive table below. You can search, sort, and filter the data to find specific countries or patterns of interest.